SEOUL, June 7 — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pyongyang on Monday, feeling in a position of strength with a firm ally in Russia, a nuclear arsenal, and little apparent appetite to engage with Washington.
For Xi, leader of the world's second-biggest economy, the two-day visit to China's neighbour, his first in seven years, is part of an effort to draw Pyongyang back into its orbit.
Xi hosted Kim, among other leaders, at a massive military parade in Beijing last year, and the two countries have since resumed some passenger rail and air services.
This week's summit is likely to present a contrast to Xi's first visit to the isolated state in 2019, months after a meeting between Kim and United States President Donald Trump fell apart over denuclearising North Korea and sanctions relief.
Xi's visit 'a big deal' for North after 'comeback'
Since then, Kim has forged closer military and trade ties with Moscow, bolstered by his dispatch of troops to fight for Russia in the Ukraine war, continued to build up his nuclear capabilities in defiance of United Nations sanctions, and locked down the North Korean border to stop the flow of escapees.
North Korea has sought to flex its strength on the eve of Xi's arrival, announcing plans on Saturday for a 10,000-ton naval destroyer and reaffirming its status as a nuclear-armed state on Sunday.
"Having Xi visit Pyongyang is a big deal and the culmination of a good couple of 'comeback' years for Kim," said consultancy Control Risks' analyst Andrew Gilholm.
In 2019, Kim gave Xi a lavish reception that included thousands of people holding up placards that formed a picture of Xi's face and the Chinese flag, and a performance of the song "I Love Thee, China".
But relations between the two have been strained at times, particularly over North Korea's nuclear programme. Beijing has publicly opposed Pyongyang's nuclear tests and called for it to give up its nuclear weapons.
North Korea has been cautious about becoming over-reliant on China, with which it shares a 1,400km border. Support from Russia is likely to provide some balance.
"North Korea is certainly gaining economically from what they are able to provide militarily to Russia. That actually puts North Korea in a position where they may feel more confident to increase the volume of trade and investment with China," said Asia Society senior fellow John Delury.
Push for tourism, red line on nuclear programme
A regional diplomat said that any substantive outcome of the meeting is likely to be about economic cooperation, as North Korea starts a five-year development plan that includes expanding tourism into a solid industry and building more housing.
North Korea shut its borders to foreign tourists in early 2020 as it imposed some of the world's strictest COVID-19 controls, cutting off a modest but important source of hard currency.
Before the pandemic, Chinese tourists were the backbone of North Korea's tourism industry, accounting for 90 per cent of foreign tourists by some estimates. The first known group of leisure tourists allowed back after COVID was about 100 from Russia's Far East in February 2024, according to Russian provincial authorities and a Western tour guide.
Following his visit last month, Singapore's Foreign Minister Dr Vivian Balakrishnan said that North Korea has made economic progress, while noting that Pyongyang appeared to have little interest in engaging with the US or South Korea.
North Korea has rejected reunification with South Korea, which had long been a goal of both nations, divided since the 1950-1953 Korean War. Nonetheless, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung remains keen on dialogue and has asked Xi to assist his efforts.
"Improving inter-Korean relations through the mediation of President Xi Jinping, we are hoping that President Xi would play that kind of role," said Yonsei University professor Moon Chung-in, who was national security adviser to a previous president.
Kim has drawn some red lines, including on his nuclear programme. In addition to Sunday's announcement, he called on Thursday for an "exponential" expansion of the country's atomic arsenal.
The Seoul-based University of North Korean Studies' president Yang Moo-jin said Kim is likely to continue expanding fissile-material production, increase and deploy nuclear weapons and emphasise the legitimacy of strengthening Pyongyang's nuclear deterrent.
"Kim is emboldened. He feels able to publicly pursue a marked expansion of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal with a confidence that comes from knowing that as long as he does not foment outright instability in the region, Beijing will not try to stop him," said the Netherlands' Leiden University's Korea specialist Christopher Green.
