JAKARTA, Nov 13 — Two major centres of power in Indonesian politics came together in a surprise alliance when former general Prabowo Subianto picked predecessor Joko Widodo's son as his running mate in the 2024 presidential election.
But this week's resignation of Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to avoid impeachment in Parliament for lacking educational qualifications, is widely seen as a sign the partnership is fraying, perhaps presaging a significant shift in politics.
"Honestly, sitting in this seat was never something I designed, thought about, or pursued," Gibran, 39, said in a farewell video message yesterday, a day after resigning as vice president.
He said that he went through a "heavy inner struggle" before becoming Prabowo's running mate, as the curtain fell on a two-year tenure that began and ended with contentious court rulings.
Prabowo's choice of Widodo’s soft-spoken eldest son, who never expressed political ambitions of his own, formed part of a political bargain that let the leader tap into some of Jokowi’s popularity, as the former president is widely known.
Analysts viewed it as a marriage of convenience between once-bitter rivals: Jokowi twice defeated Prabowo for the presidency before backing him in a deal that preserved his political influence and paved the way for a political dynasty.
Gibran's exit this week comes amid reports of growing differences between the leaders, though both sides moved to publicly declare support for each other after the resignation.
"That Gibran has finally stepped down without any apparent strong political backing to keep him can be interpreted as a sign that the political relationship between Prabowo and Jokowi has undergone a fundamental shift," said Singapore's Yusof Ishak Institute's Burhanuddin Muhtadi.
Analysts say an open split could spark further instability for a government besieged by scandals over signature programmes, such as a free school meals policy, and doubts about its ability to manage the economy.
Investor sentiment towards Southeast Asia's biggest economy has cooled this year amid scrutiny of the government's fiscal plans, as well as lingering risks of a stock market downgrade by global index provider MSCI.
Gibran's political future is still unclear. His younger brother Kaesang Pangarep has begun mobilising the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), in which sources say Jokowi is expected to take a senior leadership position soon.
Thrust into the spotlight
With little experience in high office as the mayor of his hometown of Surakarta, a mid-sized city on the island of Java, Gibran's run for vice president was controversial from the start.
He was known for showing up at official meetings and public appearances in informal clothes, such as an anime jacket he wore in a vice presidential debate in 2024.
In an editorial at the time, The Jakarta Post newspaper faulted Gibran for on-stage "antics" that drew laughs and raised doubts about his "fitness to be a national leader".
After a landslide election victory, he stood out in office, even by the usual standards for Indonesian vice presidents, though his clothes became more formal and his jocular manner gave way to silence on key developments.
Nonetheless, a government source familiar with Gibran's role said that he was not involved in decision-making on key government programmes, as Prabowo relied more on his own circles.
His most prominent moment in the limelight came with an apology during a school visit in August after hundreds of students were sickened by government-provided free meals, a move that ran counter to government efforts to downplay the matter.
Term started and ended by the courts
In 2023, the Constitutional Court, then led by Gibran's uncle, scrapped an age limit to clear the way for his candidacy, prompting ethics complaints. The ruling came just days before Prabowo declared Gibran as his running mate.
Another court ruling effectively ended his tenure.
Election law requires vice-presidential candidates to have completed senior high school or an equivalent level of education.
But court rulings last month said the evidence for the certificate submitted by Gibran, who studied abroad, fell short of proving his graduation, prompting the impeachment proposal.
Lawmakers across the political spectrum backed it on Wednesday (November 11), including nearly a dozen from Prabowo's Gerindra party.
Two people familiar with Jokowi's thinking said he was disappointed that neither Prabowo nor members of his coalition offered support when questions were raised about Gibran's educational credentials.
"Gibran’s resignation does not necessarily mean that Jokowi and Prabowo have completely parted ways. However, one of the most important bonds of their alliance has been severed," said Burhanuddin.
