BEIJING, Nov 5 — The midterm drubbing of Donald Trump's Republicans may strengthen China's hand in trade talks with Washington, but Beijing is unlikely to revel in the misfortunes of a United States (US) President whose successor could prove less accommodating.
US voters angered by rising living costs, exacerbated by Trump's trade wars with China and other countries, turned on his party in Tuesday's vote, handing Democrats control of Congress.
That political humbling should make Trump more wary of unsettling a fragile trade truce with Beijing, giving China a potential advantage in negotiations set to resume later this month.
Some Chinese and Western analysts said that Washington's divided political landscape also gives Beijing space to fortify itself and diversify its trade ties before a potentially less China-friendly US administration takes power.
"The Chinese are very realistic that a new president might be very different (from Trump). But if we can have two more years of stability, that is already a good thing for China.
"The more time we have, the better prepared we might be towards a final showdown on Taiwan or maybe another trade war," said former Chinese Foreign Ministry official Shen Weizhong, who now works for Beijing-based think tank Global Governance Institution.
However, other analysts said that the next two years may not be smooth sailing for Beijing.
The risk is that Trump, constrained at home, becomes more aggressive in seeking foreign policy wins, while a Democratic-controlled Congress may push him harder to unfreeze arms sales to Taiwan, a red line for China.
"There are more foreign policy actions that Trump can take that are unconventional and untold. The broad direction of US-China policy is not necessarily going to change, but I think that the concern is around less conventional foreign policy issues that would have unexpected ramifications for China,” said the Economist Intelligence Unit's senior China analyst Chim Lee.
Top among the concerns is an escalation of the Iran war into a wider regional conflict. That could trigger a sustained spike in global oil prices, threaten China's energy security, and disrupt Beijing’s ties in the Middle East.
Sensing weakness
In the short term, attention turns to imminent trade talks, with Trump set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Shenzhen, Guangdong, later this month and then in Miami, Florida, in December for the G20.
At stake is a truce in a trade war — expiring in January — that averted a major shock to the global economy last year.
US think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies' senior fellow Craig Singleton said that Beijing could conclude that Trump's political problems mean he needs a deal more than China, encouraging Chinese negotiators to press harder for tariff reductions and other US concessions.
He added that it also risks a "miscalculation that unsettles the very stability Xi is trying to preserve".
Trump has repeatedly railed against what he sees as China's unfair trade with Washington, slapping triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods shortly after he returned to office last year to address a trade imbalance he said was "killing" the US.
However, Trump has since significantly softened his tone, feting Xi at two grand summits in Beijing and Washington that delivered few tangible economic wins.
Trump's bonhomie with Xi stands in contrast to his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden, who repeatedly angered China with comments over human rights issues and a pledge that the US would defend Taiwan if Beijing attacked. Several analysts also see some of Trump's potential Republican successors, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as more hawkish on China.
Shanghai's Fudan University professor Wu Xinbo, who advises the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that after the midterms, Trump could be even less willing to upset the stable relationship he has developed with China.
Beyond trade, Trump may also seek to enlist Beijing's help to secure other foreign policy wins as the clock ticks on his presidency — such as ending the war between Russia and Ukraine or arranging another summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un.
According to analysts, Beijing, which maintains deep trade ties with Russia and North Korea, could use that leverage to extract concessions from Trump.
But after years of dealing primarily with Trump, it now faces a Congress far more intent on pressing human rights issues, scrutinising Chinese investments and delivering a US$14 billion (RM56.67 billion) package of arms to Taiwan that Trump has said he is withholding as a "negotiating chip" with Xi.
China claims democratically governed Taiwan and has asked for the arms sales to stop.
"The Chinese will definitely react strongly against that," said Shen, calling it "risk number one" after the midterms.
