KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 19 — MBSB Investment Bank Bhd (MBSB IB) has upgraded its 2026 growth projection for exports to 32 per cent (2025: 6.6 per cent) and imports to 26 per cent (2025: 6.0 per cent), given the stronger-than-expected performance in September.
Sustained demand for electrical and electronic (E&E) and technology-related products should remain supportive, alongside higher imports of inputs for manufacturing and investment activities.
“Nevertheless, we expect trade growth to moderate towards year-end, while supply disruptions, elevated input costs, weaker final demand and renewed trade tensions remain key downside risks,” it said in a note.
According to the Malaysian Statistics Department (DOSM), the nation's total trade surged 53.7 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM396.5 billion in September 2026 from RM258.1 billion a year earlier, supported by strong growth in both exports and imports.
Exports rose 54.5 per cent y-o-y to RM215.1 billion, mainly driven by E&E products, while imports increased 52.7 per cent to RM181.4 billion.
Furthermore, MBSB IB said strong demand for production inputs remains consistent with sustained manufacturing activity, while capital goods imports continue to support investment-related demand.
“We anticipate consumption goods imports will continue to grow, supported by resilient domestic demand,” it said.
Meanwhile, price effects also remained supportive, as nominal export and import growth continued to outpace their respective volume growth in recent months.
Import prices rose by an average of 4.9 per cent y-o-y between April and August 2026. Inflation in export prices was higher, rising by an average of 7.8 per cent y-o-y in the same period.
“In particular, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia have kept crude oil prices persistently elevated, resulting in stronger inflation in both export and import prices.
“Nevertheless, we expect volumes to remain an important driver of the trade outlook, although commodity-price volatility and disruptions to global trade and supply could still affect nominal trade values,” MBSB IB said.
The DOSM said trade surplus widened 64.9 per cent to RM33.7 billion, marking the 77th consecutive month of surplus since May 2020.
MBSB IB noted that Malaysia will continue to record an overall trade surplus, given the sizeable surplus in E&E and major commodities such as palm oil and liquefied natural gas, and, to a certain extent, rubber products.
“However, the size of the surplus may be capped by large imports of intermediate and capital goods, with the sustained deficits for products such as machinery, parts and equipment; chemicals and chemical products, as well as transport equipment,” it said.
