LONDON Aug 25 — Almost half the world's oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, underscoring that current disruptions have eclipsed previous energy crises.
Six months ago, United States (US) and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, with no clear end in sight.
At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine war has forced production and refining cuts, including in nearby Kazakhstan this year.
Ongoing conflict in Libya and US restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of the year have added further strain.
Based on Reuters calculations using International Energy Agency (IEA) data, countries affected by those conflicts produced about 45 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2025, accounting for more than 43 per cent of global supply.
The disruptions have increased the world's reliance on U.S. oil supplies, though severe weather has occasionally disrupted that too.
Not all of this year's supply disruptions happened at once.
With Saudi Arabia re-routing oil to the Red Sea and Gulf exporters secretly siphoning oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, analysts' estimate that the current Gulf oil disruption stands at around five million to six million bpd.
But risks to total flows remain high, as attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt's Suez Canal in July demonstrated. The conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have also cut global refining capacity by about a tenth.
Ukraine has targeted much of Russia's refining network, striking plants as far away as Omsk, about 2,700km from Ukrainian-held territory.
Russia is grappling with fuel shortages and has banned gasoline and diesel exports, tightening global fuel markets.
Higher fuel prices have become a key driver of inflation, contributing to higher borrowing costs and helping to push US debt to a record US$40 trillion (RM161.7 trillion).
US diesel prices have climbed to record levels despite refiners running at peak capacity.
The IEA has released record volumes from emergency stockpiles to help cushion the supply shock. Those releases are now largely complete, even as global inventories continue to decline.
