BEIJING, May 12 — A year ago, US President Donald Trump predicted that towering trade tariffs would bring America’s main economic rival to heel.
He heads to China this week with that ambition blunted by court rulings, narrowing his goals to a few deals on beans, beef and Boeing jets, and enlisting China’s help to resolve his unpopular Iran war, political analysts say.
The modest expectations for Trump’s May 14–15 meetings with Xi Jinping — the first since they paused a bruising trade war in October — underscore how his bombastic approach has failed to deliver an advantage ahead of the talks, according to analysts.
Trump “kind of needs China more than China needs him,” said Alejandro Reyes, a professor specialising in Chinese foreign policy at the University of Hong Kong.
“He needs a kind of foreign policy victory: a victory that shows that he is looking to ensure stability in the world and that he’s not just disrupting global politics,” Reyes added.
Since their last brief meeting at an airbase in South Korea, where Trump suspended triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Xi backed away from choking global supplies of rare earths, China has quietly sharpened its economic pressure toolkit aimed at Washington.
Trump, meanwhile, has been preoccupied with US court rulings against his tariffs and a war with Iran that has sapped his approval ratings ahead of November’s midterm elections.
This week’s meeting in the Chinese capital will be a grander occasion, with the leaders set to hold a summit at the Great Hall of the People, tour the UNESCO heritage-listed Temple of Heaven, dine at a state banquet, and take tea and lunch together.
But the anticipated economic deliverables amount to a handful of deals and mechanisms to manage future trade, while it remains unclear whether the leaders will even agree to extend their trade truce, officials involved in the planning said.
Trump will be joined by chief executives including Tesla’s Elon Musk and Apple’s Tim Cook, although the business delegation is smaller than when he last visited Beijing in 2017.
Aside from trade, Trump said on Monday he will discuss arms sales to Taiwan and the case of jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai with Xi. Families of two Americans imprisoned in China for more than a decade are also urging Trump to seek their release.
“We used to be taken advantage of for years with our previous presidents, and now we’re doing great with China,” Trump said. “I respect him (Xi) a lot, and hopefully he respects me.”
One battle after another
The mood music has changed dramatically since Trump declared in a Truth Social post in April 2025 that his tariffs would make China realise that the “days of ripping off” the United States were over.
Those levies prompted Beijing to restrict exports of rare earths, exposing Western dependence on materials vital to manufacturing everything from electric cars to weapons, and eventually led to a fragile Trump–Xi truce.
Since then, Trump has faced multiple other challenges, including efforts linked to Venezuela, threats to annex fellow NATO member Greenland, and a war with Iran that has plunged West Asia into chaos and stoked a global energy crisis.
More than 60 per cent of Americans disapprove of his Iran war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey last month.
Now, Trump wants China to persuade Tehran to reach a deal with Washington to end the conflict. China maintains ties with Iran and remains a major consumer of its oil exports.
Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser during Trump’s first term, told a forum in Taipei last week that while China would like to see an outcome that weakens US power, it is not immune to the economic cost of a protracted conflict.
But Beijing will want something in return, and top of Xi’s agenda is Taiwan, the democratically governed island claimed by China.
While some fear a bargain could embolden China over Taiwan, even subtle shifts in US language could raise anxiety about Washington’s commitment to its key regional ally and reverberate across other US partners in Asia.
Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai who serves on the policy advisory board of China’s foreign ministry, said Trump should make clear that he “won’t support independence or take actions that encourage a separatist political agenda”.
Superficial ceasefire
China also wants the Trump administration to commit to refraining from future retaliatory trade measures such as technology export controls, and to roll back existing restrictions on chipmaking equipment and advanced memory chips, people briefed on the talks said.
Since last October, Beijing has also expanded its economic leverage, including laws to punish foreign entities that shift supply chains away from China and tighter rare earth licensing rules.
A majority of Americans — 53 per cent — now say the United States should pursue friendly cooperation and engagement with China, up from 40 per cent in 2024, according to a survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs published in October.
So simply keeping relations stable and extending the trade truce could be enough for Trump to claim a win.
That leaves the most likely outcome a “superficial ceasefire that is largely to China’s advantage,” said Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.
