MOSCOW, April 14 — The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a decrease in global oil production from 1.54 million barrels per day to 104.67 million barrels per day instead of an increase in 2026.
Sputnik/RIA Novosti, citing its March findings, reported on Tuesday that the agency expected 2026 production to increase by 1.11 million barrels per day to 107.23 million barrels per day.
The IEA also expects oil refining to decrease by one million barrels per day to 82.9 million barrels per day in 2026 due to the situation in West Asia.
"In April, Middle East and feedstock-constrained refineries in Asia have cut runs by around 6 mb/d, to 77.2 mb/d.
“Global crude runs are now expected to decline by 1 mb/d on average in 2026, to 82.9 mb/d. Refining margins temporarily surged as middle distillate cracks reached all-time highs," its report read.
The eight Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+ countries with voluntary restrictions decreased oil production in March by 8.01 million barrels per day to 25.02 million barrels per day, and produced 7.5 million barrels per day below the quota level, it added.
The total oil production of Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Algeria, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman in March amounted to 25.02 million barrels per day, down from 33.03 million barrels per day in February.
The IEA added that, taking into account the current quotas, remaining voluntary restrictions and compensation schedules, the target level for eight countries was 32.52 million barrels.
"OPEC+ crude supply plunged by 8.1 mb/d in March to 35.2 mb/d as OPEC Gulf crude production, excluding Qatar, declined by a sharp 8.9 mb/d due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing attacks on oil infrastructure," it said.
The IEA has downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 80,000 barrels per day, now expecting demand of 104.259 million barrels per day.
"The Iran war has thoroughly upended the global outlook for oil consumption, with worldwide demand now expected to move into contraction instead of growth. Demand is forecast to decline by 80 kb/d y-o-y in 2026," it said.
According to the updated data, demand is expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day this year to 104.259 million barrels per day.
