KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 26 — Southern Africa and Southeast Asia are expected to face the sharpest rise in drought, heat and power risks following the 2026-2027 El Nino, according to a report by Fitch Solutions company BMI.
It said the El Nino weather phenomenon is likely to raise drought risk to cropland most in Southern Africa, Central America, northern South America, and Southeast Asia, threatening maize, rice, sugar, palm oil, and coffee output.
“In past El Ninos, the share of cropland exposed to high-intensity drought rose by 11-12 percentage points on average across these regions, with Zambia, Zimbabwe, Central America's Dry Corridor, the Philippines, Thailand, Guyana, and Suriname among the hardest hit.
“In Southeast Asia, drought puts rice, Thai sugar, Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil, and Vietnamese robusta (coffee) at risk, and the region faces the largest population impact, with around 90 million more people exposed to drought on average in past events,” BMI said in a statement today.
Meanwhile, El Nino poses the greatest drought risk to hydropower in Southern Africa, followed by Mexico and Central America, mirroring the pattern for agriculture.
“In previous El Ninos, the share of hydropower capacity exposed to high-intensity drought rose by around 19 percentage points on average in Southern Africa, led by Zambia and Zimbabwe, and by around 12 points in Mexico and Central America.
“Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and northern South America also face higher risk, with the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Colombia most exposed,” it said.
BMI added that power shortages are most likely where hydropower dominates the electricity mix, with Zambia and Zimbabwe facing the highest risk of load-shedding, costly imports, and pressure on utility finances this season.
“Mexico, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, South Africa, and Indonesia face large exposure increases but rely on hydropower for less than 20 per cent of generation, so impacts are more likely to show up as peak-power constraints than as system-wide shortages,” it said.
