Netflix earnings forecast disappoints Wall Street, shares tumble

17 Jul 2026, 7:13 AM
Netflix earnings forecast disappoints Wall Street, shares tumble

LOS ANGELES, July 16 — Netflix forecast third-quarter revenue and earnings on Thursday that fell short of Wall Street targets and said it would cut the frequency of viewing-hours reports as the company seeks new avenues of growth.

Shares of Netflix fell nearly 8.6 per cent in after-hours trading to US$67.99.

The company led by co-chief executive officers Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters said it expected US$12.86 billion (RM52.48 billion) in revenue from July through September and diluted earnings per share of ¢82. Analysts had forecast US$13 billion (RM53.05 billion) in revenue and diluted EPS of ¢84, according to LSEG.

After years of rapid subscriber gains, Netflix is working to grow by building advertising, live events and video games. The company's stock has lost about a fifth of its value this year as investors question how it will sustain growth.

PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore said that third-quarter projections "appear to reflect a combination of management caution and a naturally maturing growth profile, rather than any sudden deterioration in the business."

He added that they would "reinforce the view that Netflix remains strong but is entering a steadier phase of growth with considerably less room for error given the always-high expectations."

Netflix said it would cut its twice-yearly release of a viewing-hours report to once a year starting in January 2027 "to keep the focus on our primary financial metrics — revenue and operating profit." It stopped publishing quarterly subscriber numbers in 2025.

For the just-ended quarter, Netflix revenue and EPS were roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share came in at ¢80 for the three-month period, which featured hits including crime drama I Will Find You and animated feature Swapped.

Revenue totalled US$12.56 billion (RM51.26 billion).

Netflix co-chief executive officer Ted Sarandos poses on the red carpet during the Actor Awards, in Los Angeles, California, the United States, on March 1, 2026. — Picture by REUTERS

"Our financial performance remains solid, and we are on track to meet our objectives for the year," the company said in its quarterly letter to shareholders.

Competition intensifies

Netflix is facing competition from all corners of the entertainment industry, from traditional media companies such as Walt Disney to YouTube, a growing presence in living rooms, and mobile viewing on apps such as TikTok.

In April, Netflix said it had more than 325 million paying members and still had room to increase that number.

The company is building an advertising business and offering video games, two initiatives still in the early stages. It repeated an earlier forecast that ad revenue would reach US$3 billion (RM12.24 billion) by the end of the year.

The company is counting on its growing number of live events, including an expanded NFL slate, to draw more advertising dollars.

On a post-earnings video, Peters said the company was considering whether to offer a free option with advertising in some markets but had no near-term plans to launch one.

Netflix said engagement, or the amount of time people spend watching the service, was "healthy." Viewing hours grew by two per cent in the first half of the year, compared with 1.5 per cent a year ago.

It said it aimed to stay ahead of the competition, in part, by using technology to improve all aspects of its business. Use of generative artificial intelligence by producers is "scaling quickly" and has been employed in about 300 titles, mostly in post-production.

A smartphone with the Netflix logo is placed on a keyboard in this illustration on April 19, 2022.
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