LONDON, June 22 — Prime Minister Keir Starmer could set out a timetable for his departure today and pave the way for an orderly transfer of power to rival Andy Burnham, potentially ushering in Britain’s seventh leader in a decade.
Less than two years after Starmer secured a landslide election victory that promised to end a period of political instability, a source said he had spent the weekend considering whether to step aside or contest a leadership challenge.
“Keir likes to think about things,” the source said on condition of anonymity.
Pressure had been building for months
The threat to Starmer, which has been building for months, intensified on Friday when Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, won a parliamentary election to return to Westminster, defeating a candidate from Reform UK, the party led by Nigel Farage that has topped national opinion polls for more than a year.
The victory raised hopes among Labour lawmakers that Burnham, a veteran politician known for his communication skills, could revive the party’s fortunes after support waned under Starmer, whose approval ratings have fallen to record lows for a British prime minister.
However, a leadership change is not without risks.
Beyond calling for fundamental change and measures to reduce the cost of living, Burnham has yet to outline detailed positions on foreign policy, the economy and defence.
Like Starmer, he may find his room for manoeuvre constrained by bond market investors opposed to higher borrowing and by a frustrated electorate that believes the country is not functioning effectively.
Britain already faces the highest borrowing costs among Group of Seven (G7) nations due to elevated debt levels, rising interest payments, years of weak economic growth, difficulties in reducing public spending and the need for greater investment in areas such as defence.
Investors interviewed by Reuters were divided on whether Burnham, who said last September that Britain needed to get “beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets”, would respect the need to reassure financial markets.
He has since said his remarks were misrepresented.
“In our view, a Burnham premiership would inherit a precarious fiscal situation with few tools to deliver meaningful change,” economists at Citibank said on Friday.
Starmer pledged to fight any challenge
Starmer said on Friday that he would contest any formal Labour leadership election aimed at replacing him.
Former health minister Wes Streeting has also said he has secured the backing of the 81 Labour lawmakers required to enter a leadership contest. However, a senior party figure said Streeting could potentially reach an agreement with Burnham in exchange for a senior role should he stay out of the race.
While Starmer’s allies argue that his landslide general election victory in 2024 gives him a mandate to remain in office until 2029, Business Secretary Peter Kyle said on Sunday that the prime minister was reflecting on “the political challenges that he faces in this moment”.
If Starmer were to announce a departure timetable from Downing Street on Monday, he would join a growing list of recent British leaders who have stepped down before completing a full term.
Should Burnham ultimately succeed him, he would become Britain’s seventh prime minister since the 2016 referendum in which voters chose to leave the European Union, a decade ago this week.
That level of turnover — the highest in Britain in nearly 200 years — highlights the challenge of maintaining public support amid persistent concerns over living standards, public services and illegal immigration.
Political advisory group Eurasia said the most orderly outcome would be for Starmer to announce that he intends to step down in September, allowing him to attend a UK-European Union reset summit in July while giving Burnham time to prepare for government.
