CEBU, Philippines, May 7 — Conflicts far beyond Southeast Asia are expected to dominate discussions among leaders of the regional ASEAN bloc meeting in the Philippines, with the West Asia crisis posing significant challenges for fuel import-dependent economies.
The meetings on the island of Cebu today and tomorrow will bring together leaders, as well as foreign and economic ministers of the 11-member grouping, with energy and food supply security among the top priorities for the region of nearly 700 million people.
The West Asia conflict has left many Asian countries scrambling for alternative oil supplies, with ASEAN ministers convening special meetings ahead of the summit. The Philippines is also hopeful of ratifying an oil-sharing framework agreement.
“The ongoing crisis in West Asia and its far-reaching repercussions, including disruptions to energy flows, trade routes, food supply chains and the welfare of our nationals, remind us that developments beyond our region can have immediate and profound effects on ASEAN,” Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma Theresa Lazaro said in opening a meeting of her counterparts today.
“ASEAN needs to strengthen our crisis coordination and institutional readiness in times of crisis,” Lazaro said.
China holds the cards
The issue, diplomats and analysts say, will test the Philippines’ chairmanship, forcing it to coordinate a regional response while preventing ASEAN’s own conflicts, including Myanmar’s civil war and last year’s deadly and still unresolved border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, from slipping down the agenda.
“Planning to cushion the economic fallout could eventually outweigh other immediate regional issues,” said Don McLain Gill, a geopolitical analyst and lecturer at Manila’s De La Salle University.
While Myanmar’s crisis and tensions in the South China Sea will still be discussed, significant breakthroughs are unlikely, he added.
ASEAN, which has a combined gross domestic product of about US$3.8 trillion (RM15.2 trillion), has long struggled to coordinate responses to crises, with meetings typically resulting in agreements to cooperate without clear strategies or concrete commitments.
Former Philippine diplomat Laura del Rosario, however, said the scale of the energy supply shock is an issue no ASEAN country can escape and is likely to push the bloc beyond rhetoric.
The conflict has also sharpened the wider United States–China rivalry in Southeast Asia, analysts say, with Washington preoccupied by wars elsewhere and Beijing positioning itself as a more dependable partner.
“The US will be contrasted as a destabilising power, while China will be seen as a stabilising one,” said Collin Koh of Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
As a supplier of energy-related inputs and raw materials, China “holds some of the most important cards right now”, he added.
Myanmar seeks re-engagement
Also set to be addressed is the crisis in Myanmar, an issue that has divided ASEAN, with its new nominally civilian government keen to re-engage with the bloc. The election was swept by a party backed by the military, which has ruled for five years since a 2021 coup.
ASEAN has not recognised the election or indicated when Myanmar’s leadership, with former junta chief Min Aung Hlaing now president, can return to its summits after five years on the sidelines.
The military-backed government may need to convince ASEAN countries it is sincere about halting fighting and seeking dialogue with rebel groups, after recent steps towards reconciliation that include two amnesties, a reduced sentence and the transfer to house arrest of ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
ASEAN leaders are also expected to renew calls for the completion of a long-delayed code of conduct between ASEAN and Beijing for the South China Sea, with the 2026 target date seen as a challenge amid competing interests and concerns over vital economic ties with China.
Beijing, which claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, including parts of the exclusive economic zones of several ASEAN states, is not part of the meeting but remains a key external partner for the bloc.
