KUALA LUMPUR, March 17 — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP) report for air travel, which projects that global air passenger demand will more than double by 2050.
Demand is forecast to reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) under the mid‑range scenario, based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1 per cent (2024-2050) from the nine trillion RPKs seen in 2024.
A higher growth scenario would see a 3.3 per cent CAGR with passenger demand reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050, while a lower growth scenario would see 2.9 per cent CAGR with passenger demand reaching 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050.
"The different scenarios are driven by alternative modelling of long-term economic growth, populations, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development," it said in a statement.
IATA director-general Willie Walsh said the LTDP report gives governments, industries, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long‑term planning.
"It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers, such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonisation, and an effective clean energy transition," he said.
On a regional perspective, the association noted that Asia‑Pacific and Africa are expected to be the fastest‑growing regions over 2024-2050 under the mid‑range scenario, with CAGRs of 3.8 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively, while Europe and North America are projected to grow more slowly, at 2.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent.
The LTDP identifies the fastest‑growing markets as intra‑Africa (4.9 per cent), Africa-Asia‑Pacific (4.5 per cent), Asia‑Pacific-Middle East (3.9 per cent), intra‑Asia‑Pacific (3.9 per cent), and Africa–North America (3.8 per cent).
"This highlighted the importance of investment in aviation infrastructure and regulatory frameworks in developing regions. By contrast, several Europe-centred markets are among the slowest growing," IATA added.
