KUALA LUMPUR, March 17 — OCBC Group Research has revised its Brent crude oil forecast higher, expecting prices to remain elevated at around US$100 per barrel through mid-year before easing towards US$70 per barrel by early 2027 amid ongoing supply disruptions.
The upward revision marks a shift from its earlier projection that Brent crude would fall below US$70 per barrel by mid-2026.
It said the revision comes amid the United States (US)-Iran conflict entering its third week, with no credible path to de-escalation.
“A handful of vessels have reportedly transited the strait after Iranian verification, and the US has allowed Iranian shipments to move.
“Nonetheless, overall flows remain severely constrained, and no US partners have committed to US President Donald Trump’s call for joint military action to reopen the channel,” OCBC said in a note today.
The upward revision reflects heightened risks of prolonged shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, rather than a firm expectation that such a scenario will materialise amid exceptional uncertainty.
“We now expect Brent to hold around US$100 per barrel through mid-year before easing towards US$70 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027,” it said.
Meanwhile, OCBC noted that ongoing shipping disruptions and storage reaching capacity are increasingly forcing Gulf producers to shut in production.
“Restarting shut‑in wells is neither immediate nor assured, raising the risk that temporary maritime disruptions evolve into longer‑lasting supply losses.
“This creates a non-linear supply dynamic, where small early disruptions can snowball into far larger upstream declines over time,” it said.
Alternative routes, including pipelines and strategic reserves, may provide some relief but are insufficient to fully offset the scale of the disruption.
“Altogether, these offsets could total up to 10.3 million barrels per day. Even so, a prolonged, near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz would still leave the oil market with a daily shortfall of about 10 million barrels,” said OCBC.
