JAKARTA, Jan 5 — Indonesia's trade surplus widened in November to US$2.66 billion (RM10.82 billion), official data showed on Monday, but was less than expectations after exports of commodities like coal, nickel, and copper dropped, while inflation in December climbed to a 20-month high.
A Reuters poll projected a US$3.06 billion (RM12.45) surplus in November, following a US$2.39 billion (RM9.72 billion) surplus in October.
Southeast Asia's largest economy maintained an expanding trade surplus for the January to November 2025 period, with exports boosted earlier in the year as manufacturers rushed shipments ahead of United States (US) tariffs introduced in August.
However, exports have been easing in recent months and fell 6.60 per cent annually in November to reach US$22.52 billion (RM91.6 billion), compared with a 0.53 per cent drop forecast by analysts polled by Reuters.
Statistics Indonesia revealed that shipments fell mainly due to the lower export value of top commodities such as coal, palm oil, nickel metals, and copper.
Imports in November were worth US$19.86 billion (RM80.78 billion), up 0.46 per cent from a year earlier, compared with a 3.2 per cent increase forecast in the poll.
"The trade surplus is expected to persist but gradually narrow as import growth is seen to outpace exports, in line with the government's increasingly pro-growth policy stance," Permata Bank economist Faisal Rachman said.
Indonesia has finalised free trade negotiations with the European Union and signed a free trade deal with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, as it seeks to strengthen markets outside the US. Jakarta has also set a target to sign an American tariff deal by the end of this month.
Meanwhile, annual inflation picked up to 2.92 per cent in December, above analysts' median forecast of 2.73 per cent, due to higher gold and food prices, as well as the impact of floods and landslides that hit distribution channels in northern Sumatra island.
December's inflation rate was the highest since April 2024, though it remained within the central bank's 1.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent target range.
Core inflation, which excludes government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, was 2.38 per cent in December, down from 2.40 per cent expected in the poll.
Faisal added that inflation was expected to remain within Bank Indonesia's target, allowing the central bank to maintain an accommodative monetary policy.
