GENEVA, Dec 9 — Global airlines are expected to set a new record of a combined total net profit of US$41 billion (RM168.7 billion) in 2026, up from US$39.5 billion (RM162.5 billion) this year, while the net profit margin is expected to remain unchanged from 2025 at 3.9 per cent.
According to the Geneva-based International Air Transport Association (IATA), operating profit is expected to rise to US$72.8 billion (RM299.5 billion) next year from US$67 billion (RM275.7 billion) in 2025, for a net operating margin of 6.9 per cent, an improvement of 6.6 per cent over 2025.
Overall revenues are expected to grow by 4.5 per cent to US$1.05 trillion (RM4.32 trillion), outpacing operating expense growth of 4.2 per cent to US$981 billion (RM4.03 trillion), leading to a US$1.5 billion (RM6.17 billion) improvement in industry-wide net profitability in 2026.
Meanwhile, net profit per passenger transported is expected to be below US$7.90 in 2026, unchanged from this year, with the Middle East region expected to hover at US$28.6, Europe (US$10.9), North America (US$9.8), Latin America (US$5.7), Asia-Pacific (US$3.2), and Africa at US$1.3.
At a global media briefing on Tuesday, IATA director-general Willie Walsh said the financial outlook is highly encouraging, given the headwinds the industry faces: rising costs due to bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens.
He added that the projection for record profits next year is due to the airlines having successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses, which is delivering stable profitability.
The IATA has revealed that the macroeconomic factors impacting airlines are mixed for 2026.
On the positive side, gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to remain broadly stable at 3.1 per cent, and inflation to ease slightly to 3.7 per cent, while world trade growth is expected to be anaemic at 0.5 per cent.
Passenger ticket revenues are expected to reach US$751 billion (RM3.09 trillion) in 2026, primarily driven by a 4.9 per cent expansion of industry-wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) expected next year.
Ancillary and other revenues are projected to rise by 5.5 per cent to US$145 billion (RM596.6 billion), while cargo revenue is forecast to reach US$158 billion (RM650.1 billion) in 2026, driven by continued growth in cargo volumes and e-commerce volumes.
“Overall, the 2026 cost outlook points to a more balanced environment with fuel relief offset by rising non-fuel pressures, but the broader slowdown in inflation is helping to stabilise the cost base,” it said, adding that fuel costs are expected to decline slightly to US$252 billion (RM1.03 trillion) next year.
Load factors are forecast to remain at record highs, with airlines expected to fill 83.8 per cent of all seats over 2026, and passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion next year, up 4.4 per cent.
“Cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.6 million tonnes in 2026, up 2.4 per cent (compared to) 2025,” IATA said.
On his part, Walsh noted that air cargo performance is of particular interest because it has defied many gloomy predictions and held its own amid rapidly changing trading conditions.
“As trade flows adapt to the protectionist United States tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade, buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in artificial intelligence investments,” he said.
