KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 13 — MBSB Investment Bank Bhd (MBSB IB) expects Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 5.1 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q 2025), up from 4.4 per cent y-o-y growth in 2Q 2025.
It stated that the 3Q 2025 performance would be supported by resilient domestic demand, rising household spending, and continued investment activity.
“We believe the stronger growth in 3Q 2025 will also be driven by improved external trade, particularly better export performance, supported by front-loading activities and reduced uncertainties following trade negotiations with the United States,” it said in a note today.
Nonetheless, the investment bank said its 3Q 2025 estimate is slightly lower than the Department of Statistics Malaysia’s (DOSM) advance estimate of 5.2 per cent y-o-y growth, mainly due to a moderation in the services sector.
Bank Negara Malaysia and DOSM are scheduled to announce 3Q GDP figures tomorrow.
On external trade, MBSB IB said trade is estimated to rebound and contribute positively to economic growth in 3Q 2025, with net exports of goods jumping 93.6 per cent y-o-y to a larger surplus of RM50.3 billion, compared with RM14.3 billion in 2Q 2025 and RM26.0 billion in 3Q 2024.
For the services sector, it anticipated that growth would moderate to 4.8 per cent y-o-y in 3Q 2025, compared with the advance estimate of 5.1 per cent and 5.1 per cent growth recorded in 2Q 2025, mainly dragged by weaker performance in real estate, finance, and insurance activities.
Moving forward, it expected GDP growth to moderate in 4Q 2025 as the effects of front-loading activities fade.
In addition, it remained cautious that renewed trade and geopolitical tensions could destabilise and disrupt global trade and supply chain activities.
