NAIROBI, Sept 19 — Kenya expects to conclude a trade deal with the United States (US) by year-end, a move that could cushion its exports to a key market if an existing regional trade arrangement that expires this month is not renewed.
Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui's remarks to Reuters were the first indication by either side of a potential timeline for reaching a trade agreement. If a deal is reached, it would be the first of its kind between a sub-Saharan African nation and Washington.
"It depends also on them (the Americans), but our view is that before the end of the year, we should be able to have something on the table," he said in an interview late on Thursday.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's office did not reply to a request for comment on the status or timeline for a deal.
Kinyanjui met Greer in Washington last month and agreed to launch the talks for a reciprocal trade deal. No further meetings or negotiation rounds have since been announced.
Looming expiry of duty-free programme adds urgency to talks
Nairobi's efforts have been given fresh impetus by the imposition of a 10 per cent tariff on Kenyan goods during President Donald Trump's April tariff sweep and the potential expiry of a duty-free trade programme, the Africa Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA), for eligible African nations at the end of September.
Kenya, which last year exported goods worth US$737 million (RM3.1 billion) — 10 per cent of its total exports — to the US, resumed trade talks in August to safeguard market access, seeking to conclude a process that started in 2020 during Trump's first term.
New talks were opened under President Joe Biden's administration on a trade and investment partnership aimed at lifting non-tariff barriers, but were not completed before Trump returned to office in January this year.
Although Kenya is one of Washington's closest allies in the region, securing the designation by the US of a major non-Nato ally in 2024, it has had to fend off some criticism from US officials recently over its forging of closer ties with China.
President William Ruto defended the rapprochement with China, saying Kenya has to export more goods to the Asian economy to close a trade gap heavily tilted in Beijing's favour.
Kinyanjui declined to discuss potential provisions of any new trade deal but said it was "largely the wish" to replicate the terms of AGOA, which provides duty-free access to the US for thousands of products from 32 eligible African countries.
While African governments and businesses have been pushing for an extension, Trump's aggressive trade stance has cast doubt on the prospects for renewal.
The White House, Greer's office, and the US House Speaker did not respond to requests for comment on AGOA.
Protecting jobs in Kenya's textile sector
"If there is no clear transition, there would be disruption," Kinyanjui said, adding the government was hoping for some form of extension to safeguard jobs in the textiles and the apparel sector from "a sudden end to AGOA".
He noted that AGOA provides 300,000 direct and indirect jobs in Kenya's textiles sector, with factories churning out jeans, uniforms, and clothing items for American retailers like Walmart and Target.
At 10 per cent, Kenya's relatively lower duty for US exports in the wake of Trump's tariff push is below levies on countries like Vietnam or South Africa, which will provide some support even if AGOA ends, officials say.
"We believe we still can be competitive. You may see those big companies actually wanting to come to Kenya," Kinyanjui said.
