MOSCOW, May 14 — The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept its forecast for the global oil demand growth in 2025 unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day (BPD) and expects it at the level of 105 million barrels per day, according to its new report released on Wednesday.
Sputnik/RIA Novosti reported that in April, the organisation had forecast demand at 105.05 million BPD, and now it expects exactly 105 million — 50,000 barrels lower.
However, the demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.3 million, as OPEC adjusted its 2024 demand projections this month by the same 50,000 BPD, now 103.7 million BPD against 103.75 million last month.
"Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 105 mb/d in 2025, bolstered by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries," the report read.
According to the report, commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries increased by 10.3 million barrels in March to 2.74 billion barrels, which is 69.5 million barrels below the five-year average.
"Preliminary March 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories stood at 2,740 mb, 10.3 mb higher than the previous month. At this level, OECD commercial oil stocks were 27.2 mb less than the same time last year, 69.5 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 173.4 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
"Within the components, crude stocks went up by 21.4 mb, while product stocks fell by 11.2 mb, m-o-m," it read.
Meanwhile, OPEC has reduced its estimate for non-OPEC+ oil production growth in 2025 by 100,000 BPD to 0.8 million BPD, with average production expected to be at 54 million BPD.
"Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, revised down by about 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment," the report read.
Eight OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts produced 475,000 BPD of oil in April above the target level, taking into account the plan to compensate for previously admitted overproduction, a fresh report by OPEC said on Wednesday.
The combined production target for Algeria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman and Russia was set at 30.332 million BPD.
It takes into account the current voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels in effect until the end of 2026, an increase in production of 138,000 BPD from the March level due to the gradual withdrawal of additional restrictions and a plan to compensate for overproduction of 222,000 BPD. However, these countries produced 30.807 million BPD in April.
— Bernama
