KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 1 — Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent in November, said CIMB Investment Bank Bhd (CIMB IB).
The forecast aligns with the September statement from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which was not accommodating enough to trigger an immediate change.
BNM's monetary policy stance will continue to be data-dependent until the end of 2025.
“Fiscal consolidation is set to continue, with Budget 2026 reaffirming this stance. Historically, fiscal easing has only occurred during severe downturns, while monetary policy adjustments typically materialise when growth dips into the low four per cent range,” CIMB IB said in a note today.
It added that policymakers are likely to remain data-dependent through the next MPC meeting in November.
“Recent export strength has been flattered by electrical and electronics (E&E) shipments, which accounted for around 42 per cent of total exports, while non-E&E exports (58 per cent) have shown persistent weakness throughout the year.
“Should this weakness continue to persist, we see scope for a further OPR cut in the first quarter of 2026,” CIMB IB said.
