SYDNEY, April 1 — A new economic forecast projects that a 4°C rise in global temperatures could slash world GDP by 40 per cent by 2100, a sharp increase from previous estimates of just 11 per cent, the University of New South Wales (UNSW) said on Tuesday, reported Xinhua.
The findings by the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response challenge longstanding economic models that have shaped global climate policies, reinforcing the urgency of stronger climate action.
Lead researcher Timothy Neal said previous economic models failed to account for cascading supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather events. Traditionally, economists assessed climate damage by comparing historical weather events to economic growth, overlooking the global interconnectivity of modern economies.
"Because these damages have not been taken into account, prior economic models have inadvertently concluded that even severe climate change was not a big problem for the economy," he said, adding that disruptions in one region will ripple across global supply chains, affecting all nations, including colder ones like Canada and Russia.
In reality, "no country is immune," Neal said.
The revised projections bolster the case for limiting warming to 1.7°C, aligning with accelerated decarbonisation targets such as the Paris Agreement and well below the 2.7°C threshold previously deemed acceptable.
He said economic models must evolve alongside real-world climate impacts, from rising food prices to surging insurance costs.
— Bernama
