By Amar Shah Mohsen
SHAH ALAM, Aug 12 — After two weeks of intense campaigning that was not short of political drama, voters from six states head to the ballot today to determine the party that will lead their respective administrations over the next five years.
Close to 10 million registered voters from Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, which make up about half the country's total electorate, will take part in the election process.
However, the significance of today's polls goes beyond just electing the state government.
The result, which is expected to be known later tonight, will also shed light on three lingering questions — Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's popularity, public acceptance of the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (Harapan-BN) alliance, and the extent of Perikatan Nasional's (PN) green wave.
Anwar Ibrahim
For Anwar, who is the head of the ruling party, the election will be the first true test of his leadership as the country's tenth prime minister.
While he is not contesting in any of the 245 state seats, the election result can provide an indication of his popularity, close to nine months since coming into power.
In fact, some view the polls as an early referendum for the Harapan chairman.
If Anwar is able to lead the Harapan-BN alliance to defend Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan, and make some inroad into the three PAS-held states, this will serve as a statement of growing public support for his federal government.
Any less, and it can be viewed as a failure.
While the state elections will not have any direct impact at the federal level, a poor outing by Harapan-BN will challenge the stability of Anwar’s nascent Unity Government and call into question his influence on local politics.
Harapan-BN
Today's election will also establish a clearer picture on the sort of support that the Harapan-BN pact currently enjoys from among the masses since their coming together following the 15th general election in November last year.
It is, after all, the first major election that the two unlikely bedfellows are facing as partners.
Although the result — whichever way it goes — will not directly affect the alliance’s relationship, it will offer insight into voters’ sentiment towards the cooperation.
At present, the general sentiment from both party members and political observers is that Harapan is finding little difficulty trying to convince its core supporters to vote for BN candidates, as they do not see the draw in voting for PN, whom they consider divisive.
The resistance, however, stems from members of BN, particularly its lynchpin Umno, many of whom appear inclined to back PN than lending their support for long-time foe DAP.
If this turns out to be the case, major questions will be asked of BN and Umno’s ability to win back the Malay support and what can be done by the Unity Government to convince the electorate to back them come the next general election.
Green wave
Another hotly-debated question that is set to be answered is whether the so-called “green wave” will remain.
So far, political observers appear divided over whether the strong surge of support for PN that was evident during last November’s general election will persist in this state election.
Then, the coalition led by former prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin caused a major surprise by securing 74 out of 222 the parliament seats, surpassing BN as the second most dominant party in the Dewan Rakyat.
This time, some analysts are claiming that the wave is beginning to fizzle out, particularly following court cases initiated by Anwar’s government against some of PN’s top leaders — supposedly a sign that voters are growing frustrated with the coalition.
Others, however, claimed to have witnessed the opposite and attributed this to the “Sanusi factor”. This is in reference to the support Kedah Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor’s has garnered since he was slapped with sedition charges last month.
How this factor plays out in today’s election can determine if voting patterns have changed since the November 19 general election last year.
